Steve Hilton Takes The Lead In Cali Governor Race With Socal Swagger

Golden State Shocker: Hilton Surges in Governor Race

Hold onto your avocado toast, Cali fam - the 2026 governor race just got a major plot twist straight out of a Hollywood blockbuster! Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host turned political maverick, is stealing the spotlight with a narrow lead over Democrat Katie Porter, according to fresh polls that have Sacramento buzzing louder than rush hour on the 405.

The latest Emerson College poll, taken October 20-21, 2025, shows Hilton grabbing 16% support among likely voters, just ahead of Porter at 15%. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican, snags third with 11%, while Dems Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa are tied at 5% each. With a whopping 39% of voters still undecided, per Newsweek and the Orange County Register, this race is more open than a Venice Beach boardwalk on a sunny day.

California hasn’t seen a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger flexed his way to reelection in 2006, so Hilton’s rise is turning heads faster than a Tesla on Rodeo Drive. He’s pitching himself as the fresh face for change, promising to shake up what he calls ‘15 years of one-party rule.’ This SoCal surprise has everyone wondering if the state’s blue streak is finally hitting a red wave.

Numbers and Drama: Breaking Down the Poll

Diving deeper into the digits, the Emerson poll surveyed 900 likely voters with a margin of error of about 3.2 points, so Hilton’s lead is tighter than skinny jeans at a Coachella afterparty. Still, in a state where Dems outnumber Republicans by a mile, this tiny edge feels like a seismic shift. Even Governor Gavin Newsom’s approval rating climbing to 48% - its highest in a year - can’t steal the thunder from this race, especially with his controversial gerrymandering proposal getting 57% support, per Breitbart News.

Hilton’s got the underdog vibe working for him, with only 21% favorability but a low 12% unfavorable rating. A massive 68% of voters are still like, ‘Who’s this dude?’ compared to Porter’s 26% favorability and 35% unfavorable score. That unfamiliarity could be his secret weapon - or a ticking clock - as he hustles to win hearts from the Bay Area to San Diego.

'I’m all in for California, man. It kills me to see folks struggling after years of the same old politics - we need balance, and I’m here to fight for it,' Hilton told Newsweek, channeling some serious Golden State grit.

Porter’s Stumble: Viral Clips and Voter Backlash

On the flip side, Katie Porter, once the Democratic darling, is catching shade thanks to some viral moments hotter than a Santa Ana wind. A recent CBS News California Investigates clip from early October showed her getting heated during an interview with Julie Watts, even threatening to bounce when pressed about Trump voter support. Then, an old 2021 video resurfaced of her cursing at a staffer during a call with then-Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, per Politico.

The fallout? Brutal. Porter’s support among independents dropped from 16% in September to 11% in October, and her overall favorability is stuck at 26%, with 39% of voters unsure about her, according to the Orange County Register. She’s owned up to the missteps, saying she ‘could have handled things better,’ but the damage is done, and her campaign’s feeling the heat like a day at Joshua Tree with no shade.

Still, her team ain’t backing down. Spokesperson Peter Opitz told Newsweek that Porter’s the ‘battle-tested fighter’ Californians need, leading other Dems by double digits thanks to grassroots love. But with no other Democrat hitting double digits - Villaraigosa and Becerra are lagging at 5% each - whispers are growing that a big-name player like Senator Alex Padilla (with a 40% favorability rating) might jump in and switch up the game.

Jungle Primary Jitters: What’s Next for Cali?

Here’s where it gets extra messy: California’s ‘jungle primary’ system means everyone’s on the same ballot, party be damned, and only the top two move to the general election. With so many undecideds and a field more crowded than a Hollywood red carpet, winning round one doesn’t guarantee the crown. Most analysts still bet on a Democrat taking the governor’s mansion in this deep-blue state, but Hilton’s lead is shaking up the script like a surprise finale.

Polling trends show the race flipping faster than a Venice flip-flop. Back in August, Emerson had Porter at 18% and Hilton at 12%, but now she’s down three points while he’s up four. A September Zogby Strategies poll even gave Hilton 29% to Porter’s 23%, though 23% were still undecided. It’s clear this race is wilder than a night out in DTLA.

With the primary set for June 2, 2026, and the general election on November 3, both campaigns are grinding to lock down voters from the Central Valley to the coast. Nearly 40% of folks haven’t picked a side yet, and new contenders could still crash the party. Will Hilton’s outsider energy spark a historic upset, or will Cali’s Democratic roots hold strong? Grab your shades and stay tuned - this political rollercoaster is just getting started!